Crisis Room Format

ExportRisk
SIMULATOR

Our Goal: Being Prepared for Crisis

URL: https://exportrisk.tech

~25 Minutes • Interactive Simulation

PRESENTATION ROADMAP

1

THEORY

We Will Build the Decision Framework

2

MOTIVATION

Why Did We Build a Simulation?

3

APPLICATION

We Will Play the Simulator

02 / 33

RISK ANALYSIS SIMULATOR

Presentation Overview

⏱️

25

MINUTES

Interactive simulation duration

🏢

CRISIS

ROOM

Realistic decision environment

🎮

ACTIVE

SIMULATION

Dynamic learning experience

04 / 33

CRISIS ROOM

STATUS CRITICAL

⚠️

WE ARE ON THE BRINK OF BANKRUPTCY

Every decision is critical

⚡

Everyone in class is an "Export Director" today
All decisions are in your hands

CURRENT STATUS

$1,000,000

Company Cash on Hand

TARGET

End of Month

Don't go bankrupt by end of the month

SIMULATOR RULE

Every wrong decision
real cash loss

THE CRISIS GAME BEGINS

CASH FLOW IS EVERYTHING

💰

CASH FLOW
IS EVERYTHING

WHY?
We did the job well, shipped the goods
but why are we going bankrupt?

⚠️

CRITICAL ISSUE

Expected Profit
TURNED INTO A LOSS

05 / 33

KNOW YOUR ENEMY

CORE FORMULA

RISK

⚡

=

UNCERTAINTY

❓

+

LOSS
POTENTIAL

📉

Unexpected event + Financial damage

❓

Uncertainty

Future unexpected events

💰

Loss Potential

Cost or damage risk

🛡️

Risk Management

Identify → Prepare → Protect

06 / 33

THE 3 BIG ENEMIES IN EXPORTS

There is a Solution for Every Risk

🏛️

Political Risk

• Capital controls
• War / Embargo
• State intervention

IDENTIFY → PREPARE

🏢

Commercial Risk

• Buyer bankruptcy
• Goods rejection
• Payment difficulty

INSURANCE + RESEARCH

💱

Financial Risk

• Exchange rate fluctuation
• Currency loss
• Foreign exchange risk

PROTECT WITH FORWARD

07 / 33

Time Trap I

TIME = MONEY

PHASE 01

🏭

PRODUCTION

→

PHASE 02

🚢

SHIPMENT

→

PHASE 03

📅

MATURITY

→

PHASE 04

💰

COLLECTION

⏰

TIME = MONEY

Every day of delay means cash loss

Solution Path

• Use of letter of credit
• Insurance guarantee
• Short-term financing

08 / 33

RISK TYPE 1 - POLITICAL RISK

Definition

State interventions outside the buyer's control

Examples

🏛️

Capital Controls

Foreign currency exit restrictions

⚔️

War / Embargo

International sanctions

🌍

Real Life Example

Argentine Crisis (2012): Payments could not be made to exporters due to transfer bans

🇦🇷 ARGENTINA

🎮 Simulator Tip

Watch out when the map turns red

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RISK TYPE 1 - POLITICAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 1 - POLITICAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 1 - POLITICAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 2 - COMMERCIAL RISK

Definition

Buyer's inability to pay (bankruptcy) or rejection of goods

⚠️

Example Scenario

Buyer went bankrupt, goods stuck at customs

🌍

Real Life Example

Bankruptcy in Germany: Buyer unable to pay left goods worth €100,000 at customs

🇩🇪 GERMANY

COMMERCIAL RISK = BUYER PROBLEM

INSURANCE + CAREFUL RESEARCH

13 / 33

RISK TYPE 2 - COMMERCIAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 2 - COMMERCIAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 2 - COMMERCIAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 3 - FINANCIAL RISK

Definition

Exchange rate fluctuations, Foreign Exchange Rate Risk

📉

Dramatic Impact

Exchange rate fell 20%, your profit eroded

🌍

Real Life Example

Sterling Crisis (2022): British pound lost value, exporters experienced 15-20% profit loss

🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM

FINANCIAL RISK = EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION

PROTECT WITH FORWARD TRANSACTION

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RISK TYPE 3 - FINANCIAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 3 - FINANCIAL RISK / APPLICATION

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RISK TYPE 3 - FINANCIAL RISK / APPLICATION

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OUR PROJECT'S GOAL

1

🎯

FEELING THE CRISIS STRESS

✅ TARGET OUTCOME

👁️

Risk awareness

⚡

Quick decision making

🛡️

Risk management

🏆

Success practice

21 / 33

OUR TECHNOLOGY CHOICE

S

SVELTE

Modern Frontend Framework

3D

THREE.JS

3D Graphics Library

✨ MODERN WEB EXPERIENCE

✓ Real-time interactive experience

✓ Fast render and smooth animations

✓ Dynamic data updates

SVELTE + THREE.JS = MODERN TECHNOLOGY

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SIMULATOR INTERFACE • UI Introduction

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3D VISUALIZATION • Three.js

🌍

WORLD MAP

• Country points
• Route lines

⚡

CRISIS EFFECTS

• Shake effect
• Rotatable & Zoom

🎯 Powered by Three.js

Thanks to modern WebGL technology, real-time 3D rendering, smooth animations and interactive map experience.

✨ Real-Time Tracking

3D MAP → REAL-TIME TRACKING
CRISIS EFFECT → VISUAL ALARM

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GAME MECHANICS AND DATA STRUCTURE

⚡ Infrastructure / Technical Detail

🚀

Fast

📶

Offline

🪶

Lightweight

🔄 Transaction Flow

NEWS

Development

→

DECISION

Action

→

RESULT

Impact

🔧 JSON Engine

Lightweight structure with high performance. Fast operation without database requirement.

✨ Lightweight Architecture

JSON ENGINE → LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURE
NEWS → DECISION → RESULT
NO DATABASE → FAST

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SMART NEWS SYSTEM

📰 DYNAMIC FEED

🔴 BREAKING NEWS

Breaking News

Argentina has issued an unexpected capital control decision. Foreign currency transfers have been suspended.

⏱️ 2 minutes ago

⚡ Features

🔄

Real-time update

🎯

Adaptation based on situation

💥

Creating pressure element

🧠 Smart System Architecture

News is dynamically generated based on the game state. Every news item directly affects the player's decision and increases the stress level.

✨ Realistic Experience

NOT STATIC → DYNAMIC FLOW
BREAKING NEWS PRESSURE → REALISTIC EXPERIENCE

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LEVEL 1 - ARGENTINA

Argentina and Political Risk

🇦🇷

Argentina

Political Risk

🏛️

State interventions

💰

Capital controls

⚖️

Unexpected regulations

01

Crisis Scenario

Unexpected political decisions have been made in Argentina. Your payments have been suspended due to capital controls. What will you do?

🎯 What You'll Learn in This Level

✓ Identifying political risks

✓ Strategies against state interventions

✓ Using Eximbank insurance

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LEVEL 2 - GERMANY

Germany and Liquidity Gap

🇩🇪

Germany

Liquidity Gap

🏢

Buyer bankruptcy

📦

Goods stuck at customs

💰

Payment not made

02

Crisis Scenario

Your customer in Germany went bankrupt. Goods are stuck at customs and payment cannot be collected. Are you ready to deal with a 60-day liquidity gap?

🎯 What You'll Learn in This Level

✓ Liquidity gap management

✓ Using factoring

✓ Letter of credit processes

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LEVEL 3 - ITALY

Italy and Receivables Management

🇮🇹

Italy

Receivables Management

🏢

Buyer financial difficulties

⏱️

Delayed payments

📋

Debt restructuring need

03

Crisis Scenario

Your Italian customer is delaying payments and facing financial difficulties. How will you manage your receivables?

🎯 What You'll Learn in This Level

✓ Receivables collection strategies

✓ Forfaiting applications

✓ Risk insurance usage

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LEVEL 4 - EGYPT

Egypt and Exchange Rate Risk

🇪🇬

Egypt

Exchange Rate Risk

📉

Dramatic exchange rate fluctuation

💱

Foreign currency shortage

⚡

Rapid loss of value

04

Crisis Scenario

The Egyptian pound lost 20% of its value in one day. Your exports must be in foreign currency. Your profit is eroding, what will you do?

🎯 What You'll Learn in This Level

✓ Using forward transactions

✓ Exchange rate risk hedge strategies

✓ Foreign currency position management

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🏆 FINAL LEVEL

LEVEL 5 - BRAZIL

Brazil and Capital Goods Export

🇧🇷

Brazil

Capital Goods Export

🏭

Large-volume export

💰

High value, long maturity

🌐

Complex financing structure

05

Crisis Scenario

You are making a large capital goods export to Brazil. Payment maturities are long, risk factors are many. Use all your knowledge to successfully complete this major deal.

🎯 What You'll Learn in This Level

✓ Capital goods export strategies

✓ Complex financing solutions

✓ Managing all risks combined

31 / 33 • CONGRATULATIONS!

REFERENCES

Sources and documents used

[1]

Turk Eximbank, 2024 Annual Report

Turk Eximbank (2024)

[2]

Turk Eximbank, Short-Term Receivables Insurance

Turk Eximbank (n.d.)

[3]

Republic of Turkey Ministry of Trade, Eximbank–CIRR circular

Republic of Turkey Ministry of Trade (2026)

[4]

OECD, Country Risk Classifications

OECD (30 Jan 2026)

[5]

OECD, Trade finance for SMEs in the digital era

OECD (2021)

[6]

World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2023

WTO (2023)

32 / 33 • REFERENCES

🏆

THANK YOU

ExportRisk Simulator Project

Project Team

Ahmet Özkan | 22030411001

Emirhan Müslüm Bulut | 22030411045

Cemre Tosun | 21030411031

Şeyma Nur Bakla | 21030411006

33 / 33 • PROJECT COMPLETED